Atarashii Chance

This tool calculates the teams with the highest All-Perfect average or maximum scores for this song and difficulty. The non-skill score depends on the base score and should stay the same across all plays, while the skill-based score depends on how lucky you are with the skill activation rolls.

While after the latest revisions the estimated/simulated scores seem close to the actual ones, the formulas/algorithms are still incomplete and the scores should be a little bit lower than the ones from the game.

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This team was generated using all the cards in the game.

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Left4	Left3	Left2	Left1	Center	Right1	Right2	Right3	Right4
Lv 100 / SL 9 x13.8	Lv 100 / SL 9 x32.2	Lv 100 / SL 9 x38.9	Lv 100 / SL 9 x14.7	Lv 100 / SL 9 x4.8	Lv 100 / SL 9 x19.4	Lv 100 / SL 9 x43.1	Lv 100 / SL 9 x24.2	Lv 100 / SL 9 x14.2

Guest Center Skill	Increases Cool Pts for Cool Attribute characters by 13%.
Team P	48942 + 6367 (center skill) + 6367 (guest center skill) = 61676
Estimated non-skill score (AP)	771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 158361
Estimated average score	158361 (non-skill score) + 42583 (average skill score) = 200944
Estimated maximum score	158361 (non-skill score) + 152137 (maximum skill score) = 310498
Score from 1000 simulations	Average: 158465 (non-skill score) + 42270 (skills score) = 200735 Percentile 10: 158465 (non-skill score) + 34030 (skills score) = 192495 Percentile 50: 158465 (non-skill score) + 41896 (skills score) = 200361 Percentile 90: 158465 (non-skill score) + 51038 (skills score) = 209503 Percentile 95: 158465 (non-skill score) + 53723 (skills score) = 212188 Percentile 99: 158465 (non-skill score) + 58175 (skills score) = 216640 Percentile 99.5: 158465 (non-skill score) + 61108 (skills score) = 219573

Center

Kotori Minami

Center Skill	Increases Cool Pts for Cool Attribute characters by 13%.
Stats	Level 100	4001 3846 5543
Skill	Level 9	For every 15 PERFECTs you get, there is a 19% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 289 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 17935
Estimated skill score	289 x 6.8% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 3185 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	289 x 6.8% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 3220
Estimated total score	17935 (estimated non-skill score) + 3185 (estimated skill score) = 21120

Left4

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	4020 3861 5587
Skill	Level 9	For every 19 rhythm icons, there is a 17% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 332 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 18079
Estimated skill score	332 x 4.6% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 2483 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	332 x 4.5% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 2415
Estimated total score	18079 (estimated non-skill score) + 2483 (estimated skill score) = 20562

Left3

Ai Miyashita

Stats	Level 100	3850 3949 5435
Skill	Level 9	For every 15 PERFECTs you get, there is a 19% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 289 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 17586
Estimated skill score	289 x 6.8% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 3185 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	289 x 6.8% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 3220
Estimated total score	17586 (estimated non-skill score) + 3185 (estimated skill score) = 20771

Left2

Kanan Matsuura

Stats	Level 100	3988 3903 5577
Skill	Level 9	For every 15 PERFECTs you get, there is a 19% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 289 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 18048
Estimated skill score	289 x 6.8% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 3185 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	289 x 6.8% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 3220
Estimated total score	18048 (estimated non-skill score) + 3185 (estimated skill score) = 21233

Left1

Nozomi Tojo

Stats	Level 100	4021 3769 5262
Skill	Level 9	Every 4.2 seconds, there is a 35.6% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 111 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 17029
Estimated skill score	111 x 33.6% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 6006 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	111 x 33.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 5957
Estimated total score	17029 (estimated non-skill score) + 6006 (estimated skill score) = 23035

Right1

Shiki Wakana

Stats	Level 100	3817 3934 5353
Skill	Level 9	Every 4.2 seconds, there is a 35.6% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 111 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 17319
Estimated skill score	111 x 33.6% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 6006 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	111 x 33.7% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 5957
Estimated total score	17319 (estimated non-skill score) + 6006 (estimated skill score) = 23325

Right2

Shizuku Osaka

Stats	Level 100	4075 3880 5591
Skill	Level 9	Every 14.2 seconds, there is a 33% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 439 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 18089
Estimated skill score	439 x 9.2% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 6519 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	439 x 9.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 6440
Estimated total score	18089 (estimated non-skill score) + 6519 (estimated skill score) = 24608

Right3

Natsumi Onitsuka

Stats	Level 100	4020 3712 5372
Skill	Level 9	Every 4.2 seconds, there is a 35.6% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 111 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 17383
Estimated skill score	111 x 33.6% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 6006 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	111 x 33.9% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 6118
Estimated total score	17383 (estimated non-skill score) + 6006 (estimated skill score) = 23389

Right4

Karin Asaka

Stats	Level 100	3804 4130 5222
Skill	Level 9	Every 4.2 seconds, there is a 35.6% chanceof your rhythm icon score being raised by 111 for 4s.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 771 (base note score) x 205.4 (total multiplier) = 16895
Estimated skill score	111 x 33.6% (average note coverage for AP) x 161 = 6006 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	111 x 33.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 161 = 5957
Estimated total score	16895 (estimated non-skill score) + 6006 (estimated skill score) = 22901