Chance Day, Chance Way！

This tool calculates the teams with the highest All-Perfect average or maximum scores for this song and difficulty. The non-skill score depends on the base score and should stay the same across all plays, while the skill-based score depends on how lucky you are with the skill activation rolls.

While after the latest revisions the estimated/simulated scores seem close to the actual ones, the formulas/algorithms are still incomplete and the scores should be a little bit lower than the ones from the game.

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This team was generated using all the cards in the game.

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Left4	Left3	Left2	Left1	Center	Right1	Right2	Right3	Right4
Lv 100 / SL 9 x69.4	Lv 100 / SL 9 x114.4	Lv 100 / SL 9 x108.3	Lv 100 / SL 9 x94.6	Lv 100 / SL 9 x15.8	Lv 100 / SL 9 x99.6	Lv 100 / SL 9 x111.7	Lv 100 / SL 9 x109.2	Lv 100 / SL 9 x64.8

Guest Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Team P	48728 + 6338 (center skill) + 6338 (guest center skill) = 61404
Estimated non-skill score (AP)	768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 604984
Estimated average score	604984 (non-skill score) + 238603 (average skill score) = 843587
Estimated maximum score	604984 (non-skill score) + 764994 (maximum skill score) = 1369978
Score from 1000 simulations	Average: 605256 (non-skill score) + 240283 (skills score) = 845539 Percentile 10: 605256 (non-skill score) + 205195 (skills score) = 810451 Percentile 50: 605256 (non-skill score) + 239939 (skills score) = 845195 Percentile 90: 605256 (non-skill score) + 275704 (skills score) = 880960 Percentile 95: 605256 (non-skill score) + 285175 (skills score) = 890431 Percentile 99: 605256 (non-skill score) + 307840 (skills score) = 913096 Percentile 99.5: 605256 (non-skill score) + 318774 (skills score) = 924030

Center

You Watanabe

Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Stats	Level 100	5527 3737 4126
Skill	Level 9	Every 24 notes, there is a 27% chance of increasing the score of each note by 266 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 68623
Estimated skill score	266 x 23.3% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 33006 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	266 x 23.9% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 34048
Estimated total score	68623 (estimated non-skill score) + 33006 (estimated skill score) = 101629

Left4

Ayumu Uehara

Stats	Level 100	5610 3926 4010
Skill	Level 9	Every 19 notes, there is a 17% chance of increasing the score of each note by 332 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 69657
Estimated skill score	332 x 18.2% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 32184 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	332 x 18.4% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 32452
Estimated total score	69657 (estimated non-skill score) + 32184 (estimated skill score) = 101841

Left3

Ren Hazuki

Stats	Level 100	5438 4045 3751
Skill	Level 9	Every 23 combo, there is a 52% chance of increasing the score of each note by 108 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 67510
Estimated skill score	108 x 40.8% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 23419 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	108 x 41.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 23408
Estimated total score	67510 (estimated non-skill score) + 23419 (estimated skill score) = 90928

Left2

Kanon Shibuya

Stats	Level 100	5292 3853 3855
Skill	Level 9	Every 7.2 seconds, there is a 39.6% chance of increasing the score of each note by 152 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 65697
Estimated skill score	152 x 20.9% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 16914 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	152 x 20.9% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 17024
Estimated total score	65697 (estimated non-skill score) + 16914 (estimated skill score) = 82611

Left1

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	5135 4120 3771
Skill	Level 9	Every 7.2 seconds, there is a 39.6% chance of increasing the score of each note by 152 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 63756
Estimated skill score	152 x 20.9% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 16914 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	152 x 21.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 17024
Estimated total score	63756 (estimated non-skill score) + 16914 (estimated skill score) = 80670

Right1

Shiki Wakana

Stats	Level 100	5266 3738 4048
Skill	Level 9	Every 14 combo, there is a 28% chance of increasing the score of each note by 123 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 65381
Estimated skill score	123 x 33.9% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 22185 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	123 x 34.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 22344
Estimated total score	65381 (estimated non-skill score) + 22185 (estimated skill score) = 87566

Right2

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	5433 3778 4023
Skill	Level 9	Every 27 combo, there is a 35% chance of increasing the score of each note by 174 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 67460
Estimated skill score	174 x 23.3% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 21559 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	174 x 23.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 21280
Estimated total score	67460 (estimated non-skill score) + 21559 (estimated skill score) = 89019

Right3

Kinako Sakurakoji

Stats	Level 100	5428 4014 3792
Skill	Level 9	Every 20 PERFECTs, there is a 28% chance of increasing the score of each note by 252 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 67391
Estimated skill score	252 x 28.7% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 38461 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	252 x 28.9% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 38836
Estimated total score	67391 (estimated non-skill score) + 38461 (estimated skill score) = 105852

Right4

Maki Nishikino

Stats	Level 100	5599 4007 3940
Skill	Level 9	Every 22 notes, there is a 34% chance of increasing the score of each note by 198 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 787.7 (total multiplier) = 69510
Estimated skill score	198 x 32.2% (average note coverage for AP) x 532 = 33962 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	198 x 32.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 532 = 34048
Estimated total score	69510 (estimated non-skill score) + 33962 (estimated skill score) = 103471