Chance Day, Chance Way！

This tool calculates the teams with the highest All-Perfect average or maximum scores for this song and difficulty. The non-skill score depends on the base score and should stay the same across all plays, while the skill-based score depends on how lucky you are with the skill activation rolls.

While after the latest revisions the estimated/simulated scores seem close to the actual ones, the formulas/algorithms are still incomplete and the scores should be a little bit lower than the ones from the game.

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This team was generated using all the cards in the game.

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Left4	Left3	Left2	Left1	Center	Right1	Right2	Right3	Right4
Lv 100 / SL 9 x28	Lv 100 / SL 9 x26.6	Lv 100 / SL 9 x38.8	Lv 100 / SL 9 x21.2	Lv 100 / SL 9 x7.8	Lv 100 / SL 9 x21.3	Lv 100 / SL 9 x37.6	Lv 100 / SL 9 x25.2	Lv 100 / SL 9 x26.5

Guest Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Team P	48728 + 6338 (center skill) + 6338 (guest center skill) = 61404
Estimated non-skill score (AP)	768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 178833
Estimated average score	178833 (non-skill score) + 31907 (average skill score) = 210740
Estimated maximum score	178833 (non-skill score) + 103602 (maximum skill score) = 282435
Score from 1000 simulations	Average: 178923 (non-skill score) + 31852 (skills score) = 210775 Percentile 10: 178923 (non-skill score) + 25282 (skills score) = 204205 Percentile 50: 178923 (non-skill score) + 31677 (skills score) = 210600 Percentile 90: 178923 (non-skill score) + 38400 (skills score) = 217323 Percentile 95: 178923 (non-skill score) + 40673 (skills score) = 219596 Percentile 99: 178923 (non-skill score) + 44828 (skills score) = 223751 Percentile 99.5: 178923 (non-skill score) + 46559 (skills score) = 225482

Center

You Watanabe

Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Stats	Level 100	5527 3737 4126
Skill	Level 9	Every 24 notes, there is a 27% chance of increasing the score of each note by 266 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 20285
Estimated skill score	266 x 7.4% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 3447 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	266 x 7.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 3325
Estimated total score	20285 (estimated non-skill score) + 3447 (estimated skill score) = 23732

Left4

Kinako Sakurakoji

Stats	Level 100	5428 4014 3792
Skill	Level 9	Every 20 PERFECTs, there is a 28% chance of increasing the score of each note by 252 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 19921
Estimated skill score	252 x 9.4% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 4163 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	252 x 9.5% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 4200
Estimated total score	19921 (estimated non-skill score) + 4163 (estimated skill score) = 24084

Left3

Kanon Shibuya

Stats	Level 100	5292 3853 3855
Skill	Level 9	Every 7.2 seconds, there is a 39.6% chance of increasing the score of each note by 152 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 19420
Estimated skill score	152 x 19.5% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 5177 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	152 x 19.6% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 5250
Estimated total score	19420 (estimated non-skill score) + 5177 (estimated skill score) = 24596

Left2

Ren Hazuki

Stats	Level 100	5438 4045 3751
Skill	Level 9	Every 23 combo, there is a 52% chance of increasing the score of each note by 108 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 19956
Estimated skill score	108 x 13.1% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 2471 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	108 x 13.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 2450
Estimated total score	19956 (estimated non-skill score) + 2471 (estimated skill score) = 22427

Left1

Maki Nishikino

Stats	Level 100	5599 4007 3940
Skill	Level 9	Every 22 notes, there is a 34% chance of increasing the score of each note by 198 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 20547
Estimated skill score	198 x 10.3% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 3568 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	198 x 10.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 3500
Estimated total score	20547 (estimated non-skill score) + 3568 (estimated skill score) = 24115

Right1

Ayumu Uehara

Stats	Level 100	5610 3926 4010
Skill	Level 9	Every 19 notes, there is a 17% chance of increasing the score of each note by 332 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 20591
Estimated skill score	332 x 5.7% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 3330 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	332 x 5.7% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 3325
Estimated total score	20591 (estimated non-skill score) + 3330 (estimated skill score) = 23921

Right2

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	5433 3778 4023
Skill	Level 9	Every 27 combo, there is a 35% chance of increasing the score of each note by 174 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 19941
Estimated skill score	174 x 6.2% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 1888 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	174 x 6.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 1925
Estimated total score	19941 (estimated non-skill score) + 1888 (estimated skill score) = 21829

Right3

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	5135 4120 3771
Skill	Level 9	Every 7.2 seconds, there is a 39.6% chance of increasing the score of each note by 152 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 18846
Estimated skill score	152 x 19.5% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 5177 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	152 x 19.7% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 5250
Estimated total score	18846 (estimated non-skill score) + 5177 (estimated skill score) = 24023

Right4

Shiki Wakana

Stats	Level 100	5266 3738 4048
Skill	Level 9	Every 14 combo, there is a 28% chance of increasing the score of each note by 123 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 232.9 (total multiplier) = 19327
Estimated skill score	123 x 12.5% (average note coverage for AP) x 175 = 2686 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	123 x 12.7% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 175 = 2800
Estimated total score	19327 (estimated non-skill score) + 2686 (estimated skill score) = 22013