Chance Day, Chance Way！

This tool calculates the teams with the highest All-Perfect average or maximum scores for this song and difficulty. The non-skill score depends on the base score and should stay the same across all plays, while the skill-based score depends on how lucky you are with the skill activation rolls.

While after the latest revisions the estimated/simulated scores seem close to the actual ones, the formulas/algorithms are still incomplete and the scores should be a little bit lower than the ones from the game.

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This team was generated using all the cards in the game.

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Left4	Left3	Left2	Left1	Center	Right1	Right2	Right3	Right4
Lv 100 / SL 9 x45	Lv 100 / SL 9 x61.6	Lv 100 / SL 9 x73	Lv 100 / SL 9 x56.5	Lv 100 / SL 9 x16.5	Lv 100 / SL 9 x57.5	Lv 100 / SL 9 x73.4	Lv 100 / SL 9 x61.7	Lv 100 / SL 9 x45.3

Guest Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Team P	48728 + 6338 (center skill) + 6338 (guest center skill) = 61404
Estimated non-skill score (AP)	768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 376768
Estimated average score	376768 (non-skill score) + 109529 (average skill score) = 486297
Estimated maximum score	376768 (non-skill score) + 369355 (maximum skill score) = 746123
Score from 1000 simulations	Average: 376942 (non-skill score) + 109233 (skills score) = 486175 Percentile 10: 376942 (non-skill score) + 89507 (skills score) = 466449 Percentile 50: 376942 (non-skill score) + 109695 (skills score) = 486637 Percentile 90: 376942 (non-skill score) + 128814 (skills score) = 505756 Percentile 95: 376942 (non-skill score) + 133938 (skills score) = 510880 Percentile 99: 376942 (non-skill score) + 144731 (skills score) = 521673 Percentile 99.5: 376942 (non-skill score) + 148095 (skills score) = 525037

Center

You Watanabe

Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Stats	Level 100	5527 3737 4126
Skill	Level 9	Every 24 notes, there is a 27% chance of increasing the score of each note by 266 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 42736
Estimated skill score	266 x 15.2% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 13933 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	266 x 15.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 13800
Estimated total score	42736 (estimated non-skill score) + 13933 (estimated skill score) = 56670

Left4

Maki Nishikino

Stats	Level 100	5599 4007 3940
Skill	Level 9	Every 22 notes, there is a 34% chance of increasing the score of each note by 198 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 43289
Estimated skill score	198 x 21% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 14339 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	198 x 21% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 14490
Estimated total score	43289 (estimated non-skill score) + 14339 (estimated skill score) = 57628

Left3

Kanon Shibuya

Stats	Level 100	5292 3853 3855
Skill	Level 9	Every 7.2 seconds, there is a 39.6% chance of increasing the score of each note by 152 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 40914
Estimated skill score	152 x 21.2% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 11136 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	152 x 21.2% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 11040
Estimated total score	40914 (estimated non-skill score) + 11136 (estimated skill score) = 52050

Left2

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	5433 3778 4023
Skill	Level 9	Every 27 combo, there is a 35% chance of increasing the score of each note by 174 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 42012
Estimated skill score	174 x 14.6% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 8770 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	174 x 14.6% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 8625
Estimated total score	42012 (estimated non-skill score) + 8770 (estimated skill score) = 50782

Left1

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	5135 4120 3771
Skill	Level 9	Every 7.2 seconds, there is a 39.6% chance of increasing the score of each note by 152 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 39705
Estimated skill score	152 x 21.2% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 11136 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	152 x 20.9% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 11040
Estimated total score	39705 (estimated non-skill score) + 11136 (estimated skill score) = 50841

Right1

Shiki Wakana

Stats	Level 100	5266 3738 4048
Skill	Level 9	Every 14 combo, there is a 28% chance of increasing the score of each note by 123 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 40718
Estimated skill score	123 x 23.9% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 10121 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	123 x 23.8% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 10005
Estimated total score	40718 (estimated non-skill score) + 10121 (estimated skill score) = 50839

Right2

Ren Hazuki

Stats	Level 100	5438 4045 3751
Skill	Level 9	Every 23 combo, there is a 52% chance of increasing the score of each note by 108 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 42043
Estimated skill score	108 x 27.1% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 10109 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	108 x 27.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 10005
Estimated total score	42043 (estimated non-skill score) + 10109 (estimated skill score) = 52152

Right3

Kinako Sakurakoji

Stats	Level 100	5428 4014 3792
Skill	Level 9	Every 20 PERFECTs, there is a 28% chance of increasing the score of each note by 252 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 41969
Estimated skill score	252 x 18.6% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 16158 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	252 x 18.3% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 15870
Estimated total score	41969 (estimated non-skill score) + 16158 (estimated skill score) = 58128

Right4

Ayumu Uehara

Stats	Level 100	5610 3926 4010
Skill	Level 9	Every 19 notes, there is a 17% chance of increasing the score of each note by 332 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 768 (base note score) x 490.6 (total multiplier) = 43381
Estimated skill score	332 x 12.1% (average note coverage for AP) x 345 = 13828 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	332 x 12.3% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 345 = 14145
Estimated total score	43381 (estimated non-skill score) + 13828 (estimated skill score) = 57209