Chance Day, Chance Way！

This tool calculates the teams with the highest All-Perfect average or maximum scores for this song and difficulty. The non-skill score depends on the base score and should stay the same across all plays, while the skill-based score depends on how lucky you are with the skill activation rolls.

While after the latest revisions the estimated/simulated scores seem close to the actual ones, the formulas/algorithms are still incomplete and the scores should be a little bit lower than the ones from the game.

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This team was generated using all the cards in the game.

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Left4	Left3	Left2	Left1	Center	Right1	Right2	Right3	Right4
Lv 100 / SL 9 x99.7	Lv 100 / SL 9 x114.4	Lv 100 / SL 9 x164.3	Lv 100 / SL 9 x126	Lv 100 / SL 9 x33.6	Lv 100 / SL 9 x120.9	Lv 100 / SL 9 x167.9	Lv 100 / SL 9 x120.5	Lv 100 / SL 9 x101.7

Guest Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Team P	48622 + 6325 (center skill) + 6325 (guest center skill) = 61272
Estimated non-skill score (AP)	766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 803488
Estimated average score	803488 (non-skill score) + 660915 (average skill score) = 1464403
Estimated maximum score	803488 (non-skill score) + 1669711 (maximum skill score) = 2473199
Score from 1000 simulations	Average: 803905 (non-skill score) + 661516 (skills score) = 1465421 Percentile 10: 803905 (non-skill score) + 595572 (skills score) = 1399477 Percentile 50: 803905 (non-skill score) + 658233 (skills score) = 1462138 Percentile 90: 803905 (non-skill score) + 728990 (skills score) = 1532895 Percentile 95: 803905 (non-skill score) + 748372 (skills score) = 1552277 Percentile 99: 803905 (non-skill score) + 783413 (skills score) = 1587318 Percentile 99.5: 803905 (non-skill score) + 787962 (skills score) = 1591867

Center

You Watanabe

Center Skill	Smile P of Smile members increased by 13%
Stats	Level 100	5527 3737 4126
Skill	Level 9	Every 24 notes, there is a 27% chance of increasing the score of each note by 266 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 91335
Estimated skill score	266 x 33.8% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 73893 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	266 x 33.9% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 73890
Estimated total score	91335 (estimated non-skill score) + 73893 (estimated skill score) = 165229

Left4

Eli Ayase

Stats	Level 100	5150 4075 4243
Skill	Level 9	Every 21 PERFECTs, there is a 35% chance of increasing the score of each note by 183 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 85106
Estimated skill score	183 x 46.9% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 70391 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	183 x 47.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 70606
Estimated total score	85106 (estimated non-skill score) + 70391 (estimated skill score) = 155497

Left3

Rina Tennoji

Stats	Level 100	5439 3890 3905
Skill	Level 9	Every 27 PERFECTs, there is a 24% chance of increasing the score of each note by 319 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 89893
Estimated skill score	319 x 27.4% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 71654 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	319 x 27.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 70606
Estimated total score	89893 (estimated non-skill score) + 71654 (estimated skill score) = 161547

Left2

Chisato Arashi

Stats	Level 100	5433 3778 4023
Skill	Level 9	Every 27 combo, there is a 35% chance of increasing the score of each note by 174 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 89788
Estimated skill score	174 x 37% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 52822 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	174 x 37% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 52544
Estimated total score	89788 (estimated non-skill score) + 52822 (estimated skill score) = 142610

Left1

Ruby Kurosawa

Stats	Level 100	5529 4082 3779
Skill	Level 9	Every 24 PERFECTs, there is a 40% chance of increasing the score of each note by 210 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 91362
Estimated skill score	210 x 48.1% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 82942 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	210 x 47.9% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 82100
Estimated total score	91362 (estimated non-skill score) + 82942 (estimated skill score) = 174303

Right1

Ayumu Uehara

Stats	Level 100	5610 3926 4010
Skill	Level 9	Every 19 notes, there is a 17% chance of increasing the score of each note by 332 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 92712
Estimated skill score	332 x 27% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 73660 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	332 x 27.5% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 74711
Estimated total score	92712 (estimated non-skill score) + 73660 (estimated skill score) = 166372

Right2

Kinako Sakurakoji

Stats	Level 100	5428 4014 3792
Skill	Level 9	Every 20 PERFECTs, there is a 28% chance of increasing the score of each note by 252 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 89696
Estimated skill score	252 x 40.3% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 83430 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	252 x 40.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 82921
Estimated total score	89696 (estimated non-skill score) + 83430 (estimated skill score) = 173126

Right3

Maki Nishikino

Stats	Level 100	5599 4007 3940
Skill	Level 9	Every 22 notes, there is a 34% chance of increasing the score of each note by 198 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 92516
Estimated skill score	198 x 44.1% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 71739 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	198 x 44.1% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 71427
Estimated total score	92516 (estimated non-skill score) + 71739 (estimated skill score) = 164254

Right4

Ayumu Uehara

Stats	Level 100	4907 3619 3824
Skill	Level 9	Every 18 PERFECTs, there is a 41% chance of increasing the score of each note by 163 for 4 seconds.
Estimated non-skill score	10 % (Team P ratio) x 766 (base note score) x 1048.9 (total multiplier) = 81081
Estimated skill score	163 x 60.1% (average note coverage for AP) x 821 = 80385 (average skill score for AP)
Simulated skill score	163 x 60.4% (actual note coverage in simulations) x 821 = 80458
Estimated total score	81081 (estimated non-skill score) + 80385 (estimated skill score) = 161465